One of the very first lessons that a beginner needs to learn before getting into forex trading is market analysis. How well you can analyse and interpret the market situation will determine your chances of success in the dynamic forex market. You cannot make a logical trading decision without a detailed analysis that tells you the direction in which the market is headed and what type of position you should take to get the desired results. So, we can say that analytical skills are crucial for profitable forex trading. Today, you will get some powerful tips and useful tools that can help you get better at market analysis.
Learning About Forex Fundamentals
Analysing the market movements requires a deeper understanding of the market dynamics. But you need to start by studying the basics. Learning about forex fundamentals is a crucial step for developing your analytical skills. A currency pair’s relative strength or weakness will be the basis of all price movements you see in the forex market. Fundamental analysis focuses on the factors that strengthen or weaken a currency against another. This includes major economic events and macroeconomic figures like Inflation rate, GDP and Central Bank interest rates.
If a country’s economy is seen performing poorly based on its economic data, then its currency is most likely to become weaker and fall in value. Because currencies are actually valued based on how well the economy is doing, this is the reason behind the US Dollar becoming the world’s reserve currency. The US has maintained its position as one of the world’s strongest economies, which is also reflected in the forex market as major pairs, including USD, always have the highest trading volume. So, having some surface-level knowledge about fundamental analysis is crucial for all traders, even if they rely only on technical analysis.
Studying Technical Analysis
Technical analysis functions as a foundation for most forex strategies. Technical analysis studies historical and real-time price data plotted on a chart. Chart reading is the basis for technical analysis as the market situation becomes much more comprehensible when presented visually. Candlestick charts are the most widely used tool for technical analysis because of their detailing. But at the same time, it also lets us see the bigger picture when we consider longer timeframes for analysis. The timeframe you choose to analyse the market is crucial for technical analysis.
To be precise, technical analysis is based on tracking currency price movements as they are difficult to monitor without the help of a chart. The fluctuations in exchange rates can be very small, so we use a pip as a standard measurement unit to state them in numbers. One pip denotes a movement of 0.0001 in all currency pairs except Japanese Yen pairs, where it is 0.01. As you can see, currency price movements can be very minor, and tools like Forex pip calculators are essential to understanding the impact of price movements.
Technical analysis helps us see the minor price movements that happen in real-time, allowing us to predict the potential price movements based on the patterns we see on the chart. Technical analysis is crucial for finding ideal trade setups and traders also test their strategies using historical price charts. This is referred to as backtesting, and you will need a good amount of technical analysis knowledge to assess your strategy with the historical market data.
Basics of technical analysis or chart reading
- Support and Resistance Levels: These are price levels where a currency pair tends to find buying or selling pressure. A downtrend will likely pause at a support level, and an uptrend will peak when the price touches the resistance level. Support and resistance levels play a key role in technical analysis as traders use these levels to decide the optimal entry and exit points for their trades. Traders also often use them to determine Stop Loss and Take profit levels. Once you make profits or losses, you can calculate the amount in your own currency with the help of a currency calculator. This will help you know how much you have gained or lost.
- Chart Patterns: Traders often look for patterns such as head and shoulders, flags, and triangles to predict price movements. Head and shoulders is a popular reversal pattern; three peaks characterise it. The central peak (head) is higher than the two surrounding peaks (shoulders). Double Top and Double Bottom is another relevant pattern you should know about. Here, the price peaks (double top) or troughs (double bottom) are at approximately the same level twice, indicating a potential trend reversal.
- Indicators: Technical indicators that work using mathematical formulas are a great addition to your charts for a detailed analysis of the market situation. A wide range of technical indicators like Moving Averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and MACD can be used to provide additional insights into price trends and potential reversals. Some traders only rely on price action for making decisions, but using a few reliable indicators would be ideal for adding more precision to your analysis.
Analysing market movements
Another approach to forex market analysis involves monitoring significant shifts in trader participation with a specific currency. When there is a large number of buyers for a currency pair, the market sentiment for the pair is said to be bullish, and when the number of sellers is more, the sentiment is bearish. You can use this information to make trading decisions by trying to predict the direction in which the price moves based on what other traders are thinking.
It is more like following the crowd and moving based on the overall momentum being formed based on the positions taken by a group of traders. Some traders follow the market movements and place trades in the same direction, but you can also go against the sentiment if you find a solid reason to do so.
Best Tools for Technical Analysis
There are a lot of simple to advanced tools that can be used to support your analysis and trading decisions. It ranges from basic trading calculators to advanced technical indicators that provide relevant information for making sound decisions. Apart from that, I would like to recommend 2 tools that can be used to simplify the process of analysing price charts.
- Session highlighter – A session highlight is a simple tool that can divide the charts by highlighting various trading sessions. It highlights all the price movements during a specified timeframe, such as an hour, a definite number of minutes or a single minute if you are into scalping. This functionality lets traders gain precise insights into how currency pairs behave during trading sessions. This tool is very useful for finding the best time and timeframe to trade based on the movements during a trading session.
- Volatility Tool – The forex market is known for its high volatility, which gives us a lot of trading opportunities, but at the same time, it adds to the risk. The forex market remains active, and there will be daily trading activity. However, the volatility will not be the same, and an idea about market volatility is crucial for making informed trading decisions. Not to forget that different currency pairs have different levels of volatility. The currency pairs can become more volatile during a news release or key economic event.
The volatility tool is useful to understand this better as it assesses the historical price data of a currency pair for a specified period and tells us about its volatility in a comprehensive manner. Its primary objective is to provide traders with a comprehensive understanding of how a specific currency pair has moved in terms of price fluctuations on an hourly basis. By scrutinising this historical data, traders can discern recurring patterns and behaviours within the currency pair. You can use a margin calculator with the volatility tool to ensure you use the right trading margin in the volatile market.
For instance, they may uncover consistent price movements occurring on specific days of the week or during particular times of the trading day. This knowledge empowers traders to make more informed decisions by anticipating potential market movements.
In The End
So, these are some basic tips and tools that you can use to get better at market analysis for profitable forex trading. The forex market is very different from other financial markets. The method you use for analysis should be carefully chosen based on your trading goals and requirements. For beginners, it would be ideal to start with technical analysis and focus on longer timeframes first to understand the market better. Then, you can try shorter time frames.
